Look, guys. Matt Howard has been merely mediocre in the tournament so far. Folks are ranting and raving about how Butler does not have the size to stop Zoubek on the offensive board, especially if they don’t have Howard.

If you look at the stat sheets more closely, Howard only put up meaningful numbers against lowly competitions, and completely disappears against tougher teams. He’s unathletic with a very poor offensive game. While he is the 2nd best post defender behind Hayward, Duke’s offense does not come from post plays anyways. Zoubek and Thomas are terrific at settings screens, but their scoring comes mainly from put backs or the occasional feed off dribble penetration. Butler plays good team defense and team rebounding – and losing Howard, while hurts, isn’t nearly as bad as all the ESPN analysts make it out to be.

Duke, being mainly a perimeter scoring team, has poor shooting percentage from the floor. What their offense excels in is offensive rebounding and subsequent open looks from 3. Butler is one of the best defensive rebounding team in the nation because they don’t focus on pushing the ball off a miss; everybody stays home and rebound. If they are able to defend the board like they did against great offensive rebounding team like Michigan St, Butler would have the edge over Duke’s offense.

Duke had two great showing on the offensive board in the last two games. Against Baylor, Duke had 22 offensive rebound off 39 misses, a staggering 56%. Against West Virginia, Duke grabbed 11 off 26 misses in a blow out game, still good for a strong 42%. People talk about how Duke is able to beat both WV and Baylor’s tall front line to these offensive boards, but much of it is a result of the zone defense the two teams employed. Baylor and West Virginia almost played exclusively zone, which is vulnerable against offensive board.

Obviously, if the big three shoot lights out, the offensive rebound issue would be moot. But here’s another area where Butler’s defense match up well against Duke’s offensive. Zuebek and Thomas are great at setting screens for the big three, who can both drive and take outside shots. However, Butler often switches on perimeter defense, taking away some of the shot opportunities the screens create.

Veasley and Nored are tremendous defenders, and Mack is the weak link, who is more coveted for his offensive skills. But all three are athletic enough to stay in front of the big three to minimize penetration and force them into jump shots. Should Butler be able to protect the defensive board effectively, which they are capable of, Butler’s defense will be able to withstand Duke’s potent offense.

Lastly, for all the Duke backers, let’s look at how the Blue Devils got to the championship game – they defeated a hapless Arkansas-Pine Bluff in first round. Next, Duke matched up against Golden Bears, who were undersized (starts one player over 6-7) and came off a tiring win over Lousville where bench logged merely 18 minutes. Then Duke dispatched Purdue who was without Robbie Hummel. Finally, Duke on the next two on excellent 3pt shooting (11-23 or against Baylor and 13-25 against WV). If Duke’s on fire from beyond the arc again, Butler would have very little chance of winning. But law of averages suggests Duke will shoot closer to their season average, though excellent, is still just about 38.7% – a bit better than 1/3.

Butler has not loss a game at home this year. In fact, they were favored against Ohio St. and Xavier at home, winning both. Now Butler is playing 6 miles away from the campus with much of the state backing the oh-so-good Hoosier redux.

Take Butler +7. And you know I would be rooting for the underdog. Hey, someone’s gotta challenge the Saints for the best sports story for the year.

McGwire said that PED didn’t help him hit more homeruns.  Then why did he call Roger Maris, whose single season homerun was broken by McGwire, to apologize?  A few other statement blew my mind as well:

“I took very low dosages because I wanted my body to feel normal.” – Are you kidding me? Does his forearm looks anything but normal?

“The only reason I took steroids was for health purposes.” – Same with Pettitte who gave the sugar-coated crap about how he took PEG to get back from injury and to be there for his teammates.

“I wish I didn’t play in the steroid era.”

Why can’t players just take full responsibility and own up their action?  The game doesn’t need to hear any explanation or any buts.  Own up, show humility, and admit that lies have been told to the public.  Don’t give the public justification for a mistake that was made, instead, simply take full and complete responsibility and ask for forgiveness.

Another thing is, La Russa should start taking some responsibility here as well.  There have been many marquee players that played for him that had been on the frontline of PED use, including Conseco and McGwire.  This guys is smart enough to get a law degree, knows his players inside out as an excellent manager, but you’re telling me he doesn’t know that some of his top players were taking steroids?  Give me freaking a break.

Sadly, when McCoy was knocked out of the game on the 5th play, it was pretty much over for Texas.  Had McCoy not gotten hurt, we would be spending most of today questioning Saban’s call for a fake punt and weird kick-off return decision, and how they lead to possibly Alabama’s demise in the championship game.

We did get to see Gilbert’s potential and why he was a very highly touted quarterback coming in from high school.  But that came after 1 for 10 passing with two picks in the first half, one of which was a shovel pass that was returned for TD.  Yes, Alabama did go to a conservative game plan which allowed Texas to creep back into the game as Gilbert began to connect with Shipley.  But with the way Bama looked in the first few possessions, it was clear that Texas had all the momentum and had the swagger.

The first thought that came to my mind when McCoy was taken out of the game was that karma finally caught up to Brown for his lobbying of votes in the 2004 season, that helped Texas to leapfrog Cal to get to a BCS bowl.  Of course, I am a bitter Cal fan, but I can’t stop to think what may have happened if Aaron Rodger and co. got to Rose Bowl that year for the first time in half a century.  It could have propelled the program to a new level and made a difference on recruiting and the stadium construction.  Instead, we fell hard in the tough loss to Texas Tech in the Holiday Bowl with the players playing with no motivation, and we have not been able to reach that success since.

On the flip side, this incident could spell good news for McCoy in a strange way.  He has often been questioned for his ability to throw deep balls, but I feel that with enough experience and a different game plan, he has a chance to become a starting QB in the NFL.  Being an intelligent player, a winner, and a tremendous leader (shown by how his team played when he went out versus when he returned to the sideline last night), McCoy has a lot of the intangibles that talent alone does not provide.

Without the opportunity to showcase his skill in a high profile game (see how Jamarcus Russel boosted his status by destroying an overrated ND team with an over-the-hill defense) and the potential issue on his injury, McCoy may end up getting passed on in the draft.  If he slips from his current projection of early 2nd round to a late 2nd round, it will afford him the opportunity to be picked up by a winning team and gives him time to grow and mature around other talents.

Okay, fine, I am stretching it with this whole talk about how McCoy will end up benefit from this injury.  But at the end of the day, Bama got lucky to win the national championship, and sorry Brown, the karma caught up.

People are getting so caught up with how McElroy played really well against Florida, and how Mark Ingram is a Heisman trophy winner.  What people don’t realize is that – while both Texas and Alabama have very good rush defense (giving up 62 yards and 78 yards on the ground respective), Texas is giving an amazingly low 2.0 ypc.  That’s not just very good – it’s scary.

Take a step further and throw away the lesser competition and look at just the last 3 games played, Bama is actually giving up 4.3 ypc to Texas’s 3.0.  I can see Ingram being shut down tonight, much like what happened against Auburn.  Remember, Alabama was a team that failed to score any offensive touchdowns during long stretch during the season.

Lastly, Texas excels in the return game, while Bama has been atrocious in kick-off and punt coverage. These are the kind of things that people don’t really think about, because all the public’s focus is on the household names.  Ingram, McCoy… but you know what?  The hidden return yards will be making a difference tonight.

Go against public perception.  That’s it.  That’s it!  Pick Texas!  Don’t pick the team with the Heisman winner!

Pick: Texas +4 over Alabama

NCAA Football Pick Result: 6-6

Holy smoke!  How did Roberto Alomar not get elected to the Hall of Fame?

We’re talking about a class act, second baseman who is 12-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glover who finished his 17 year career with more than 2700 career hits and 474 stolen bases.  You want postseason stats?  He has been to the World Series twice, winning both.  In 58 postseason games, he stole 20 bases while gotten caught just twice.  He also held a career postseason .313 batting average and .829 OPS; both better than his regular season marks.

Looking at pure statistics – Alomar scored 194 on Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor Test, a test that involves a wide variety of stats and player history.  How high is 194?  According to baseball-reference.com, 100 is a likely Hall of Famer while 130 is a virtual cinch.  194 puts Alomar at 43rd place among everyone that has ever played the game.  I dare you to tell me one good reason he doesn’t deserve to get voted into Hall of Fame!

Okay, there was one tarnish in his productive career – the spitting incident with umpire Hirschbeck back in 1996.  But he has since then patched things up with Hirschbeck and donated money to charity to make up for the foul remark on umpire’s son who died of ALD.

Alomar’s omission from the HoF highlights an issue that is common across nearly all popular sports in America, and that is the lack of recognition for defensive play, passed down from our grandfather’s generation.

Take college football for example, how many times have you heard a defensive player get attention for the Heisman trophy?  Suh won virtually every single defensive player and lineman trophies and took home the AP player of the year award in 2009, but he finished 4th in the Heisman race.  The NBA didn’t even start recording blocks until the ‘73 season!

If the Heisman voters and MLB HoF voters are more up-to-date with the current evolution of the game and have a well-rounded perspective, I believe Roberto Alomar would have been voted into Cooperstown and Suh would have been voted the Heisman this year.

Stanzi’s back, and GTech has a deceptively poor rush defense.  Iowa’s strength is its simple defensive scheme, which I believe will match up better against GTech’s triple option rushing attack than say, a defense that relies on complex blitz or coverage schemes.  It’s no surprise that Iowa has a much less hype especially because of their low pre-season ranking and numerous close calls this year.  But also remember that they didn’t have Stanzi for two and a half games, and they nearly beat an Ohio State team that convincingly defeated Oregon.

Pick: Iowa +6 over Georgia Tech

NCAAF Pick Record: 5-6

Houston’s poor rush defense will have a hard time stopping Air Force’s complex triple option rushing scheme.  Also take a good look at the first half line, for Houston also has a tendency to start slow.

I like the under on this game as AF looks to maintain long drives and keeping Case Keenum and co. off the field.

Pick: Air Force +4.5 over Houston

NCAAF Pick Result: 1-4

Arizona started out as a slight favorite, but heavy action on Nebraska has made them a 3 point dog at the Holiday Bowl.  Everybody’s jumping on Nebraska now with the national recognition of Suh.  He’s indeed an amazing defensive tackle, but Arizona’s short and quick passing games will counter that (see Nebraska’s loss against Texas Tech).  San Diego is also a short travel from Tuscon, AZ and it will be virtually a home game for the Wildcats.

Pick: Arizona + 3 over Nebraska

NCAAF Pick Result: 1-3

I played in a 12 team fantasy football league with a $100 buy in this year.  Picking last in the draft, I selected Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Matt Shaub, and Chris Cooley that propelled me to a first place finish with a record of 9-4.  We have a 6 team playoff, and I had a monster bye week.  Things were looking good.

Unfortunately, I went up against a solid team in the semi and I didn’t have a chance while my opponent scored 130+.  This past weekend, I finished 1.9 points ahead of my opponent.  However, I woke up this morning to a scoring change for the Cardinals defense which gave my opponent 2 more points – and I lost by mere 0.1.  Doh!

At least my picks came through this weekend – all my picks covered, two of them with much ease.  Pac-10 got creamed (including my ala mater Cal) by WAC, I am in a small hole in bowl picks.  Only cover being a nail biter between North Carolina and Pittsburgh.  I do like the upcoming picks though, especially Northwestern +7 over Auburn.

Hope you guys are all enjoying the holiday season!

NFL Picks Record: 6-4

NCAAF Picks Record: 1-3